The implied Network Address Translation (NAT) is from the router’s external, WAN-side IP to an internal LAN-side IP.
That’s not just “implied” - that is what is commonly known as “destination NAT” (often abbreviated as DNAT). It rewrites (translates) the destination IP address of the inbound packet, and possibly also the port.
I’m not modifying that from default.
On most home routers, the default is to track everything, because that’s what most people want. DD-WRT is no different in that respect.
The connection tracking seems to be an integral part of NAT in it’s various subtleties, at least within DD-WRT.
Connection tracking is used by NAT in order to figure out what the source IP / port of the reply packets needs to be rewritten back to prior to forwarding them on. This is why, in most cases, disabling connection tracking will break NAT. Often you’ll see that the replies still go out, but with the wrong source - the router doesn’t know it’s supposed to be rewriting the source address for them, and they then get dropped (either by your own router or somewhere upstream) because they have a source address in a private address space, which should never appear on the public internet.
ntp traffic stops arriving at the linux NTP server within the router’s protected subnet (this is not good)
If packets aren’t arriving at the server, the router may be trying to optimise untracked packets and using a cut-through routing path which excludes NAT entirely.
It sounds like there’s not a clear solution here.
The clear solution is to serve NTP from something that has a public IP assigned to it directly, and does not require NAT.
If that isn’t an option, a partial workaround is to drop the packet rate to something much lower, to limit the number of unique clients your router is likely to see in any given time period. You may also wish to look into the tracking timeout for UDP flows. Given that NTP uses only a single packet request and reply, there is absolutely no value gained from having that traffic clutter up the tracking tables once the reply is sent.